Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.179266 2.297771 2.425705 2.575332 2.747221 2.940698 3.178254
2025-09-28 2.033025 2.176471 2.336987 2.532743 2.769252 3.051906 3.425858
2025-10-05 1.984291 2.150123 2.341153 2.582474 2.887307 3.272644 3.822396
2025-10-12 1.962704 2.148630 2.368229 2.654489 3.031378 3.534830 4.313044
2025-10-19 1.909645 2.103434 2.335820 2.644737 3.062459 3.641615 4.590196
2025-10-26 1.872517 2.073836 2.318561 2.649750 3.108934 3.769011 4.916435
2025-11-02 1.816624 2.017499 2.263380 2.599219 3.071010 3.762574 5.005840
2025-11-09 1.781664 1.985122 2.236212 2.582970 3.077927 3.821190 5.216396
2025-11-16 1.752248 1.957997 2.213778 2.570544 3.087270 3.880976 5.434997
2025-11-23 1.724072 1.931023 2.189832 2.553777 3.087326 3.922734 5.620228
2025-11-30 1.712502 1.924314 2.191411 2.571356 3.138108 4.050752 6.013591
2025-12-07 1.663658 1.868344 2.126072 2.491933 3.035966 3.907542 5.762247
2025-12-14 1.642633 1.848503 2.109082 2.481700 3.041978 3.956162 5.977713
2025-12-21 1.611878 1.815154 2.072906 2.442404 3.000125 3.915965 5.969187
2025-12-28 1.615817 1.826468 2.096181 2.488177 3.092618 4.121843 6.625665
2026-01-04 1.627424 1.847685 2.132927 2.554322 3.221181 4.409978 7.649367
2026-01-11 1.611834 1.832523 2.119356 2.545326 3.225153 4.455872 7.950009
2026-01-18 1.602032 1.824630 2.115290 2.549887 3.251206 4.547110 8.443245
2026-01-25 1.574955 1.793247 2.078060 2.503421 3.188534 4.450020 8.204465
2026-02-01 1.559892 1.777538 2.062112 2.488438 3.178617 4.461609 8.386612
2026-02-08 1.546742 1.764074 2.048879 2.476970 3.173806 4.482621 8.611272
2026-02-15 1.532789 1.749252 2.033385 2.461499 3.161164 4.485337 8.760506
2026-02-22 1.530394 1.749670 2.038861 2.477662 3.203230 4.607801 9.481747